NCAA-F | Oregon vs California
The betting public sees Cal laying just a field goal at home against an Oregon team that has been crushed in their last two games by Washington State (33-51) and Washington (21-70) and is jumping all over the Golden Bears. I think this is a huge trap line by the books, as I see the value with the Ducks. Oregon has won 7 straight in the series and are 2-4 because of a brutal schedule. Cal’s two best offensive players are dealing with injuries and without the offense scoring 40+ points/game this Bears team is not very good.
This is a statement game for the Ducks and they have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. Let’s also not forget the defense wasn’t great last year and they held Cal to just 28-points in a 16-point win as a mere 3-point home favorite. They were undervalued in this matchup last year and I believe are again this time around. Give me Oregon +3!
NCAA-F | San Jose State vs San Diego State
San Diego State -23
I would have to lean on the Aztecs to cover the big number at home. I just don’t trust this San Jose State to make this game competitive on the road. The Spartans are 0-3 on the road, where they are allowing 45.7 ppg. Two of those being blowout losses to teams not as good as the Aztecs. They lost by 35 at Tulsa and 34 at Iowa State. Not to mention they lost at home to Hawaii by 17.
San Diego State has scored 26 points or less in their last 3 games. Which is clearly a trend they have to snap to cover this spread. I believe they will. Keep in mind we have seen them put up 45 on Cal and 42 at Northern Illinois.
The Aztecs offense is centered around star running back Donnel Pumphrey. He’s already rushed for 1,111 yards and 11 touchdowns. San Diego State as a team is ranked 18th in the country at 246.o ypg on the ground.
They will be going up against an awful San Jose State run defense. The Spartans are allowing 228.3 rushing yards/game (113th). It’s much worse on the road, where they are allowing 313 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry. They are also pitiful against the pass, giving up 8.8 yards/attempt.
The other big key here is San Jose State doesn’t offer much of a threat offensively. The Spartans have scored 17 or less points in 5 of their 7 games. Only topping the mark against Portland State and New Mexico. They go up against a San Diego State defense that is only allowing 20.0 ypg. The Aztecs are strong against both the run and the pass. They are allowing just 98.0 ypg on the ground (7th) and 199.2 ypg through the air (29th).
Another big key here figures to be turnovers. San Jose State has 3 or more turnovers in 4 of their 7 games this season. The Aztecs on the other hand have 6 turnovers in 6 games. If San Diego State gets a couple takeaways to create short fields, this could get ugly in a hurry.
Keep in mind the last two meetings have both been lopsided in favor of the Aztecs. San Diego State won 38-7 at home in 2014 and 30-7 at San Jose State last year. If you are going to play this one, I think you have to roll the dice on the Aztecs. Take San Diego State!